Berkeley Bubble

I’ve been amused by the Clinton campaign’s recent desire to throw out the results of the Democratic primaries and argue that Democrats should pick the candidate who happens to be leading in Gallup head to head polls in May. Oh yes, and who could forget that Florida and Michigan’s votes should suddenly be counted in the delegate calculus (despite the fact that Obama was NOT on the ballot in Michigan).

The Electoral-Vote website has also been used by the Clinton campaign to tout the supposed electability of Clinton in the general election. I have to tell you folks–while it’s a fun site to look at it, the map is highly, highly flawed, as most of the state predictions are based on state polls from February, March and early April.

But let’s look at some of the polling data anyway to see if there are important implications for a GE strategy. What’s ironic about all of this is that Electoral Vote.com actually shows that it is Obama, and not Hillary, who would is currently leading McCain right now in MICHIGAN. (Hillary is actually losing both Michigan and Wisconsin to McCain). And Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain in Florida.

But get this–Obama is also in a statistical dead heat with McCain in Indiana (tied), and South Carolina, putting two traditionally “red” states into play that have not been in play for Democrats for decades. And Obama is running close in Texas, Nebraska, and Virginia.

Obama will be the stronger General Election candidate because he will effectively force McCain into a war of attrition over financial resources, by forcing McCain to spread his resources thinly in states that Republican candidates in previous races have taken for granted. By the time we get to June or July, we could be looking at a race in which Obama has 50 to 100 million (or more) than McCain in campaign finances (McCain has less than 25 million right now). And that disparity will increase when Obama is formally declared to be the nominee. McCain will simply not be able to build a 50 state operation that can compete with the Democratic ticket this fall, both in grassroots field operations and in expensive media markets nationwide. To compound McCain’s difficulties, the DNC will also have a huge cash advantage over the RNC.

Can’t wait until November…