Berkeley Bubble

Howard Fineman of Newsweek is reporting that the Obama campaign will declare victory following Oregon’s primary on May 20th. At that point, Obama will have won the majority of all delegates, and no Democratic presidential candidate who was done that has ever been denied the nomination. Here’s more:

“The die is cast,” campaign manager David Plouffe told me after the early returns came in Tuesday night, revealing that Obama had won a big victory in North Carolina. According to Plouffe’s math, Sen. Hillary Clinton still could win big in West Virginia and Kentucky. But even with those victories, Obama pickups in those states, plus a likely big win in Oregon, would be enough to reach the magic number: 1,627, a clear majority of the pledged delegates.

At that point, his strategists say, Obama will be able to turn to uncommitted superdelegates and say: “I’ve done my part.” Party leaders such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have said, in effect, that they will support whichever candidate wins the most delegates in primaries and caucuses. And, by then, Obama will have done so. I am told that Pelosi herself may remain neutral until the convention, but that 60 or so House members who have been hanging back would be free to commit.

Before we get ready to celebrate that day, we in California should all probably make trips up to Oregon to work for the Obama campaign to seal the deal. Phone calls and door-to-door grassroots work. You can start by making phone calls for Obama to Oregon from your own phone and computer here. Or if you’re even more motivated, do the same for voters in Kentucky. Having made hundreds of calls myself to voters in Wisconsin and Texas, I can tell you that it’s fun and does make a difference.