Berkeley Bubble

The Hill reports on how Obama slipped into the House chambers today, and received a tremendous reception befitting the Democratic presidential nominee:

Obama, increasingly looking like the Democratic presidential nominee, strode into the House chamber just before 11 a.m. as the House was beginning a series of votes. Obama, who was greeted with hugs and backslaps, slipped in the side door along with what appeared to be only his security detail.
“I wanted to see what’s going on over here,” Obama, wearing a broad smile, told reporters. “I hear there’s a lot of action on this side.”

He spoke to uncommitted superdelegates as well as supporters of his rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) He was also seen speaking to Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), who is neutral in the race. And he talked at length to Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), an uncommitted superdelegate.

The Democratic frontrunner spoke with Clinton supporters Reps. John Murtha (Pa.) and Bill Pascrell (N.J.), as well as Reps. Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and John Spratt (S.C.), who are both uncommitted.

Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.), a Clinton supporter, got Obama to sign a copy of today’s New York Daily News with the headline: “It’s His Party.”

He also talked with Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.), a Clinton supporter whose district voted for Obama. But those votes have not been counted in the Democratic primary because Florida defied the party rules in scheduling its primary.

“I was teasing, as everyone was. I said, ‘Do you want me to kiss the ring now, or when you come to Florida,’” Hastings said. “He said, ‘Take your time.’ I said, ‘I will take my time, because you do need to come to Florida,’” Hastings related later. “I didn’t get to say what I wanted to say, which is that he could just say right now, ‘Seat the Florida delegation.’”

Even Republicans were not immune. Rep. Chip Pickering (R-Miss.) brought his children over to say hello. Obama also spoke with Republican Reps. David Dreier (Calif.) and Jerry Lewis (Calif.). Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) came running after him, and Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-Wyo.) came over to chat.

He spent about 40 minutes speaking to lawmakers. After he exited the floor, Obama said the goal is to “bring the party together as soon as possible.”

MSNBC just announced that Congressman Brad Miller (D-NC) has announced his support for Barack Obama, bringing his total to 1851 total delegates (including 261 Superdelegates), according to MSNBC’s tally.

John Edwards is going to be interviewed tomorrow morning on the Today show–raising anticipation that he might endorse Obama.

I’ve been amused by the Clinton campaign’s recent desire to throw out the results of the Democratic primaries and argue that Democrats should pick the candidate who happens to be leading in Gallup head to head polls in May. Oh yes, and who could forget that Florida and Michigan’s votes should suddenly be counted in the delegate calculus (despite the fact that Obama was NOT on the ballot in Michigan).

The Electoral-Vote website has also been used by the Clinton campaign to tout the supposed electability of Clinton in the general election. I have to tell you folks–while it’s a fun site to look at it, the map is highly, highly flawed, as most of the state predictions are based on state polls from February, March and early April.

But let’s look at some of the polling data anyway to see if there are important implications for a GE strategy. What’s ironic about all of this is that Electoral Vote.com actually shows that it is Obama, and not Hillary, who would is currently leading McCain right now in MICHIGAN. (Hillary is actually losing both Michigan and Wisconsin to McCain). And Obama is in a statistical dead heat with McCain in Florida.

But get this–Obama is also in a statistical dead heat with McCain in Indiana (tied), and South Carolina, putting two traditionally “red” states into play that have not been in play for Democrats for decades. And Obama is running close in Texas, Nebraska, and Virginia.

Obama will be the stronger General Election candidate because he will effectively force McCain into a war of attrition over financial resources, by forcing McCain to spread his resources thinly in states that Republican candidates in previous races have taken for granted. By the time we get to June or July, we could be looking at a race in which Obama has 50 to 100 million (or more) than McCain in campaign finances (McCain has less than 25 million right now). And that disparity will increase when Obama is formally declared to be the nominee. McCain will simply not be able to build a 50 state operation that can compete with the Democratic ticket this fall, both in grassroots field operations and in expensive media markets nationwide. To compound McCain’s difficulties, the DNC will also have a huge cash advantage over the RNC.

Can’t wait until November…

This is huge:

Saying he believes Barack Obama is the best candidate to fight for working people, former U.S. Rep. David Bonior of Mt. Clemens endorsed the Illinois senator’s run for the presidency this morning, adding that he has shown the fight he needs to win in November.
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Bonior, who ran former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ unsuccessful campaign for the Democratic nomination, could be a key figure in helping to sway organized labor behind Obama. Many unions, including the United Auto Workers, have not yet made an endorsement.

Bonior also said he has talked to Edwards as recently as last week but gave no indication if or when the former candidate will endorse Obama or Clinton.

The endorsement comes two days after voters in North Carolina gave Obama a resounding win and Clinton eked out a slim victory in Indiana. Taken together, they make for very long odds of Clinton winning the nomination, even if she wins all of the remaining primaries, including those in West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon .

“I was waiting for Sen. Obama to show me the fight I wanted to see because it’s going to be difficult against (presumptive Republcian nominee) Sen. (John) McCain,” said Bonior. “He’s shown great skill, great poise, great determination and spirit.”

A few weeks ago, before the Pennsylvania primary, Bonior told the Free Press he wasn’t ready to endorse because he hadn’t heard either candidate talk enough about the problems of working people. But he says the last several weeks have seen Obama increasingly focus on that area.

Bonior said: “This is a critical election in our nation’s history. … Sen. Obama is the candidate who can take on the Wall Street lobbyists and make sure Washington works for working families again.”

Here’s the link to Time’s article on the Democratic nominee for President.

The article provides a revealing look at Obama’s general election strategy–which will include visits to NON-primary states in the coming weeks:

The superdelegate push has already begun. Campaign strategist David Axelrod said on the flight to Chicago that the message to them was, “Read the newspapers.” He said the campaign expected more supers to announce in coming days, and that they would be reaching out to them. One North Carolina undecided superdelegate said last week before the vote that he would go with his district, and the Obama camp expects several in that state and elsewhere to come forward in the next few days.
Obama has already begun politely talking past Clinton. In his victory speech in Raleigh he had gentle, even respectful things to say, surprising even his own staffers by appearing to concede Indiana just as the race was beginning to close. He even solicitously implied Clinton might still win the nomination. But being nice to a competitor is almost worse than attacking them, since it implies they no longer really pose a threat. His attacks on McCain, by contrast, have grown sharper. “We know what’s coming,” from the Republicans, he said. “I’m not naive, we’ve already seen it.” And he again hammered McCain for carrying on what he called George W. Bush’s “failed” policies.

That, of course, is only one part of the campaign’s acting as if it’s already engaged in a general election. Obama will travel to non-primary states, says Axelrod. It will mobilize its nationwide grassroots organization to start targeting McCain. And, says Axelrod, “We’re going to spend time addressing broader issues,” such as foreign and national security matters and (though Axelrod and communications aide Robert Gibbs denied it Tuesday) beginning the search for a vice presidential candidate.

Howard Fineman of Newsweek is reporting that the Obama campaign will declare victory following Oregon’s primary on May 20th. At that point, Obama will have won the majority of all delegates, and no Democratic presidential candidate who was done that has ever been denied the nomination. Here’s more:

“The die is cast,” campaign manager David Plouffe told me after the early returns came in Tuesday night, revealing that Obama had won a big victory in North Carolina. According to Plouffe’s math, Sen. Hillary Clinton still could win big in West Virginia and Kentucky. But even with those victories, Obama pickups in those states, plus a likely big win in Oregon, would be enough to reach the magic number: 1,627, a clear majority of the pledged delegates.

At that point, his strategists say, Obama will be able to turn to uncommitted superdelegates and say: “I’ve done my part.” Party leaders such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have said, in effect, that they will support whichever candidate wins the most delegates in primaries and caucuses. And, by then, Obama will have done so. I am told that Pelosi herself may remain neutral until the convention, but that 60 or so House members who have been hanging back would be free to commit.

Before we get ready to celebrate that day, we in California should all probably make trips up to Oregon to work for the Obama campaign to seal the deal. Phone calls and door-to-door grassroots work. You can start by making phone calls for Obama to Oregon from your own phone and computer here. Or if you’re even more motivated, do the same for voters in Kentucky. Having made hundreds of calls myself to voters in Wisconsin and Texas, I can tell you that it’s fun and does make a difference.

Following Obama’s remarkable victory in North Carolina and near-win in Indiana, the media narrative today is clear–Obama is close to wrapping up the Democratic nomination.

George Stephanopolous said this morning on GMA that the “Fight is over,” following comments last night from Tim Russert proclaiming that Obama was the nominee.

As the NYT notes today–Obama now has a virtually insurmountable lead in the pledged delegates total, the popular vote, he’s won the most states, and will soon take over the superdelegate lead over the next two weeks.

Obama now leads in delegates by a margin of 1851 to 1697–so he’s only 174 delegates away from the nomination total of 2025. Of course, today the Clinton campaign is suddenly moving the goalposts again, claiming that the illegal elections held in Florida and Michigan must count and that the real total is 2209. I’ve been saying for weeks now on this blog that this campaign was over following Obama’s wins in February (and today a Clinton official admitted as much). But with Obama’s win in the “big” state (10th largest state in the Union) of North Carolina and virtual tie in Indiana, the pundits, the party elders, and yes, Clinton campaign officials are now coming around to the truth–we now know that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2008.

Update: Barack Obama has picked up four superdelegates today, as noted here and here. This means that Obama is only 169 delegates away from securing the nomination. Expect many more supers to announce in the coming days for Barack.
What’s more–Obama is just 33 delegates away from capturing an absolute majority of all delegates.

Hillary Clinton went negative (again), launching a last minute attack on Obama today, hoping to bamboozle voters into voting for her because of her gas tax holiday gimmick (which would not only give the average resident less than $30 for the whole summer, but could hurt our roads and bridges and cost Americans who work on them jobs). We’ve come to expect this from a desperate Clinton campaign that is willing to say anything and do anything to get elected. Sadly this has also included irresponsible and dangerous comments about “obliterating” Iran.

Thankfully, Obama was able to respond to Clinton’s attack ad today with a strong commercial that forcefully notes that the same old slash-and-burn Washington politics won’t solve Americans’ problems. Let’s hope this closes the deal

It appears Obama has rediscovered the energy and message that initially drove him to victory in Iowa and the thirty (30) states he’s won thus far–watch this speech through the closing (5:00) part of the speech, where he delivers a brilliant defense of his patriotism:

Obama’s surging now in national polling–and if he can keep up this passion and energy for the next few weeks, I predict he will clinch the nomination by the beginning of June.

There’s growing speculation that McCain may pick Bobby Jindal, the 36 year old Indian-American Governor of Loiusiana, at least according to Bill Kristol’s Monday New York Times column. Kristol suggests that Jindal would help boost McCain’s polling in a bad year for Republicans:

Another McCain staffer called my attention to this finding in the latest Fox News poll: McCain led Obama in the straight match-up, 46 to 43. Voters were then asked to choose between two tickets, McCain-Romney vs. Obama-Clinton. Obama-Clinton won 47 to 41.

That reversal of a three-point McCain lead to a six-point deficit for the McCain ticket suggests what might happen (a) when the Democrats unite, and (b) if McCain were to choose a conventional running mate, who, as it were, reinforced the Republican brand for the ticket. As the McCain aide put it, this is what will happen if we run a traditional campaign; our numbers will gradually regress toward the (losing) generic Republican number.

Maybe that’s why, in separate conversations last week, no fewer than four McCain staffers and advisers mentioned as a possible vice-presidential pick the 36-year-old Louisiana governor, Bobby Jindal. They’re tempted by the idea of picking someone so young, with real accomplishments and a strong reformist streak.

It might also be a way to confront the issue of McCain’s age (71), which private polls and focus groups suggest could be a real problem. A Jindal pick would implicitly acknowledge the questions and raise the ante. The message would be: “You want generational change? You can get it with McCain-Jindal — without risking a liberal and inexperienced Obama as commander in chief.” I would add that it was after McCain spent considerable time with Jindal in New Orleans recently, and reportedly found him, as he has before, personally engaging and intellectually impressive, that the campaign’s informal name-dropping of Jindal began.